Is Kentucky a Real Contender for the NCAA Championship?

Kentucky is back where it should be – consistently ranked in the top ten, playing exciting basketball with one-and-done players, and aiming for a high seed in the NCAA tournament. The 10th-ranked Wildcats currently boast a 15-4 record, compete for a top position in the SEC, and appear capable of beating anyone. But should they be considered a legitimate contender for the national championship? For now, probably not. However, there is still time for that to change.

The offense is not a problem. I assert that there is no team with more talent and depth than the Wildcats. John Calipari’s squad ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom.com and averages 88.5 points per game, which is fifth-best in the country. And their three-point shooting? It’s poetry in motion for Kentucky fans who have witnessed Calipari’s teams struggle from beyond the arc in the past. This group is one of the best three-point shooting teams in college basketball, shooting at a remarkable 40.2% clip.

But without significant improvements, it is the defense that will hinder Kentucky’s chances of winning the championship.

After this past weekend’s good news of a 63-57 road victory over Arkansas, Kentucky’s defensive performance catapulted them from 96th to 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency. It’s a noteworthy improvement, but the Wildcats will need more performances like this to solidify themselves as championship contenders before the NCAA tournament.

How can we know this? Thanks to research using Ken Pomeroy’s data, we can see the challenging task that Kentucky faces. Furthermore, we can compare this data to other good teams that have concerning defensive statistics. The lowest-ranked defense in KenPom’s era (since 1996-97) to win the NCAA championship was Baylor in the 2020-21 season (44th overall). Only four teams that started the NCAA tournament outside the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency have won it all. Currently, Kentucky is ranked 70th. The key for Kentucky, Wisconsin, Baylor, etc. is to avoid falling within the bottom 45 defensive teams after the selection and then win five or even six NCAA tournament games.

There is a difference between reaching the Final Four and winning the championship. Among the 104 teams that have reached the Final Four since 1997, the average adjusted defensive efficiency was 21.88 – with some variations. If UK fans simply desire a return to the Final Four since 2015, here’s some good news. In the past 26 tournaments, nine teams made the Final Four while ranking 50th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency, with five of them falling between 80th and 132nd place. Being average defensively for four months can still lead to a spot in the Final Four. Here’s a list of the worst-ranked teams in the modern era that accomplished this feat: 2002-03 Marquette (16th overall, 80th on defense), 2020-21 UCLA (44th overall, 86th on defense), 1999-00 UNC (29th overall, 100th on defense), 2010-11 VCU (82nd overall, 126th on defense), 2022-23 Miami (40th overall, 132nd on defense). What do these teams have in common? None of them reached the championship game, let alone won it.

Kentucky (20th in the KenPom ranking and ninth in offensive efficiency) will undoubtedly provide entertainment over the next two months, but they must transcend the confines of a team trying to win a race to score 80+ points. The Wildcats have 15 games to improve their defense; otherwise, their March fate won’t extend to the final game in Arizona.