Can Kentucky compete for the NCAA Championship?

Kentucky is considered a top contender in college basketball, consistently ranked in the top ten and known for its exciting playstyle and talented one-and-done players. With a record of 15-4, they are currently ranked 10th in the country and are competing for a high seed in the NCAA tournament. However, can they be seen as a legitimate contender for the national championship? At this point, probably not, but there is still time for that to change.

The Wildcats’ offense is not a problem. They possess an impressive roster of talented players, making them one of the most skilled and deep teams in the country. According to KenPom.com, they rank ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 88.5 points per game, placing them fifth overall. Their three-point shooting is particularly noteworthy, shooting at an impressive 40.2% clip.

However, it is their defense that can hinder their chances of winning the championship if significant improvements are not made. While their recent victory over Arkansas showcased an improvement in defensive performance, launching them from 96th to 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency, they still need more consistent performances like this to solidify themselves as true championship contenders.

Research using KenPom’s data reveals the challenge that Kentucky faces. Throughout history, only four teams that started the NCAA tournament ranked outside the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency have emerged as champions. The lowest-ranked defense to win the championship was Baylor in the 2020-21 season, ranked 44th overall. Currently sitting at 70th, Kentucky needs to avoid falling within the bottom 45 defensive teams after the selection and then win multiple games in the tournament.

Making it to the Final Four is an accomplishment, but winning the championship requires a different level of defensive performance. Among the teams that have reached the Final Four since 1997, the average adjusted defensive efficiency was 21.88. So, if Kentucky fans are simply hoping for a return to the Final Four, there’s still hope. In the past 26 tournaments, nine teams have made it to the Final Four while ranking 50th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency.

However, it’s important to note that no team ranked below 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency has reached the championship game, let alone won it. Teams like 2002-03 Marquette (16th overall, 80th on defense), 2020-21 UCLA (44th overall, 86th on defense), 1999-00 UNC (29th overall, 100th on defense), 2010-11 VCU (82nd overall, 126th on defense), and 2022-23 Miami (40th overall, 132nd on defense) have made it to the Final Four with subpar defensive rankings but fell short of winning it all.

While Kentucky’s offensive prowess and ranking indicate their potential for an exciting season, they must prioritize and improve their defense over the course of their remaining 15 games if they hope to extend their March fate to the final game in Arizona.